此外，自20世纪50年代以来，核武器的扩散从多个方面引发了学术争论。两个核扩散学派长期以来一直在讨论核武器在国际关系中的作用。乐观主义者将过去作为证据，他们声称核武器将只用于防御目的，并确保国际和平与安全。米尔斯海默指出，虽然1900年至1945年间欧洲有5000万人丧生，但在核时代，只有15000名欧洲人死于战争。此外，沃尔兹认为，以征服为目的的核战争可能是狂热想象的产物。另一方面，萨根等核扩散悲观主义者认为，考虑到核世界的潜在缺陷，核武器可能会对国际和平与安全构成巨大威胁。在这篇essay范文中，将通过考察悲观主义者和乐观主义者的观点，特别是以肯尼斯·沃尔兹和斯科特·萨根的论点为出发点，讨论核扩散是否对国际安全和人类未来更有利。
Essay on Nuclear Proliferation Debate 核扩散辩论课程作业
It has been 73 years since the launch of an atomic bomb in the cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, where hundreds of thousands of people died or were injured in seconds. Exposing the terrible destructive power of nuclear weapons in Japan was not enough to convince humanity to get rid of these dangerous weapons. On the contrary, their extraordinary destructive power increased the attractiveness of nuclear weapons for many states and administrators. In the following years, Soviet Union, Britain, France and the People‘s Republic of China have followed the US and have nuclear weapons. In the following periods, Israel, India, Pakistan and North Korea joined the nuclear club with their atomic bombs.
Moreover, proliferation of nuclear weapons has brought about scholarly debates from many aspects since 1950s. Two schools of nuclear proliferation have been discussing the role of nuclear weapons in international relations for a long time. The optimists demonstrate the past as evidence when they claim that nuclear weapons will only be used for defensive purposes and to ensure international peace and security. Mearsheimer points out that while 50 million people were killed in Europe between 1900 and 1945, In the nuclear age, only 15.000 Europeans died because of the wars. (Mearsheimer, 2009, p.57) Furthermore, possible nuclear war started with the aim of conquest is regarded by Waltz as the product of feverish imaginations. (Waltz, 1995, p.12) On the other hand, nuclear proliferation pessimists such as Sagan claim that nuclear weapons may pose great danger for international peace and security by taking into consideration the potential drawbacks of nuclear world. (Sagan, 1994) In this essay whether nuclear proliferation is better for international security and future of humanity will be discussed by examining both pessimist and optimist approaches, particularly, taking Kenneth Waltz‘s and Scott Sagan’s arguments as point of departure.
General Overview on Waltz’s Ideas 沃尔兹思想概述
Waltz, who can be defined as defensive neorealist, suggests that the primary purpose of states is not to gain strength but to preserve their existence in an anarchical international system. He stresses that the international system rewards states that do not want to dominate the states, but rather protect the status quo. Each state can maintain its position in the system with a status quoist approach and at the end of this process it can ensure its security because of the balance of power in the international system. The balance of power model serves as the regulatory mechanism of the international system, and the security of the international system goes hand in hand with the security of states. (Waltz, 1979, p. 41)
沃尔兹可以被定义为防御性的新现实主义者，他认为国家的主要目的不是为了获得力量，而是为了在无政府的国际体系中保持其存在。他强调，国际体系奖励那些不想支配国家，而是保护现状的国家。每一个国家都可以以现状主义的方式维持其在体系中的地位，在这一过程结束时，由于国际体系中的力量平衡，它可以确保其安全。权力平衡模式是国际体系的监管机制，国际体系的安全与国家的安全密不可分。
When it comes to nuclear world, Waltz argues that in the case of minor conflict or escalation, nuclear weapons force parties to become more cautious concerning the possibility of deepening of the dispute. Both sides refrain from threatening their adversaries’ vital interest comprehending that even small number of weapons may give rise to catastrophic consequences. There is no point of applying nuclear weapons with offensive purposes, if states know that military a
