he first to use these weapons in a possible conflict.
最后，威慑的另一个方面是不首先使用原则。不是第一个在潜在冲突中使用核武器的国家符合威慑理论的逻辑。这是美国、俄罗斯、法国、英国、中国和印度宣布的战略。通过这种方式，各国表明，它们获得核武器的唯一理由是提高其威慑和防御能力。另一方面，朝鲜、巴基斯坦和以色列等一些国家可能会在可能的冲突中率先使用这些武器。
Alliances 联盟
Waltz argues that becoming nuclear power do not necessarily weaken alliances. In the Cold War years, alliance and threat definitions could be made more easily because there was equilibrium in the system that could create a balance of power. With similar perceptions and expectations, actors were able to maintain their relations through this polarization by taking place in different camps. However, as the system becomes more complicated after the Cold War, it makes the security perception of the players more difficult in terms of alliances.
沃尔兹认为，成为核力量并不一定会削弱联盟。在冷战时期，联盟和威胁的定义可以更容易地制定，因为系统中存在着可以创造力量平衡的平衡。由于有着相似的看法和期望，行动者能够通过在不同的阵营中发生的这种两极分化来维持他们的关系。然而，随着冷战后该系统变得更加复杂，这使得玩家在联盟方面的安全感知变得更加困难。
In 2015, while whether leaving NATO would be more beneficial were being discussed in Turkish politics, immense tension between Turkey and Russia occurred in consequence of downing Russian aircraft by Turkey in Syria. During the crises Turkey’s executives realised that they are in desperate need of stressing their NATO member status, and relationship between Turkey and NATO must be strengthened again because of Russian threat. Turkey was threatened even with possible nuclear attack by Vladimir Zhirinovsky who was the member of Russian parliament. It is obvious that if Turkey had had nuclear deterrence capability, it would have pursued more independent policy.
2015年，尽管土耳其政坛正在讨论离开北约是否会更有利，但由于土耳其在叙利亚击落俄罗斯飞机，土耳其和俄罗斯之间发生了巨大的紧张关系。在危机期间，土耳其的高管们意识到，他们迫切需要强调自己的北约成员国地位，由于俄罗斯的威胁，土耳其和北约之间的关系必须再次加强。俄罗斯议会议员弗拉基米尔·日里诺夫斯基甚至威胁土耳其可能会进行核攻击。很明显，如果土耳其拥有核威慑能力，它就会奉行更加独立的政策。
Nuclear proliferation, especially for superpowers, undermines the alliances because it makes security guarantees given by superpowers pointless. South Korea, similar France’s doubtfulness with regard to guarantee of protection given by United States in the face of Soviet threat, can decide to develop nuclear weapons in the near future, and this is likely to tempt Japan and Taiwan into obtaining their own nuclear arsenal. As a result of that by not depending on USA, they may fell more confident in deciding about their foreign policy, and this leads to weakening of alliances and increasing tensions in East Asia.
核扩散，特别是对超级大国的核扩散，破坏了联盟，因为它使超级大国提供的安全保障毫无意义。韩国和法国一样，对美国在面对苏联威胁时提供保护的保证持怀疑态度，可以在不久的将来决定发展核武器，这可能会诱使日本和台湾获得自己的核武库。因此，由于不依赖美国，他们可能对决定其外交政策更有信心，这导致联盟的削弱和东亚紧张局势的加剧。
Conclusion 结论
Even if, Waltz was substantially justified about his all claims, very little possibility of nuclear war or accident can not be ignored. Because, nobody claim that one nuclear strike which may stem from planned activity or accident will never turn out to be nuclear Mexican standoff. Worse, this kind of regional conflict can turn out to be worldwide nuclear conflict.
即使沃尔兹对自己的所有主张都有充分的理由，核战争或核事故的可能性也微乎其微。因为，没有人声称，一次可能源于计划中的活动或事故的核打击永远不会成为墨西哥核僵局。更糟糕的是，这种地区冲突可能演变成全球核冲突。
If nuclear weapons can, of course, be destroyed simultaneously by all countries, this could be a very important achievement for world peace. However, due to the competition of the states, this is not an easy target. Thus, the management of nuclear weapons and the preservation of world peace and balance will be one of the most important issues of International Relations in the 21st century. At this point, potential proliferators should be deterred from obtaining nuclear weapons, nuclear weapons capacities of the states should be reduced, and necessary precautions should be taken to increase security level.
当然，如果所有国家都能同时销毁核武器，这可能是世界和平的一项非常重要的成就。然而，由于各国的竞争，这不是一个容易的目标。因此，管理核武器和维护世界和平与平衡将是21世纪国际关系中最重要的问题之一。在这一点上，应阻止潜在的扩散者获得核武器，应降低各国的核武器能力，并采取必要的预防措施以提高安全水平。本站提供各国各专业essay写作指导服务，如有需要可咨询本平台。
