Banking Essay范文参考-政府和中央银行应对经济衰退。本文是一篇留学生银行学专业课程作业范文,主要内容是讲述在2008年底经济学家认为,当经济增长减速时,经济可能会导致——或者已经陷入——衰退。官方对衰退的定义是连续两个季度国内生产总值下降。然而,国家经济研究局根据一系列经济指标,将衰退视为“经济活动在整个经济中的显著下降,持续了几个月以上”,重点是就业和收入趋势。它并不局限于使用两个季度GDP负增长的技术定义,因为它只按季度进行评估,而且可能会进行修订。到两个季度GDP增长为负时,衰退已经发生得很好了。以下内容就是这篇Banking Essay范文,供参考。
Discuss how the government and the central bank should respond to an economic slowdown and a recession 讨论政府和央行应如何应对经济放缓和衰退
At the end of year 2008, economists suggested that the economy may be led to -or already in- a recession when economic growth was decelerating. The official definition of a recession is two successive quarters with a decline in gross domestic product (GDP). However, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) identifies that a recession as a “significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months” based on a number of economic indicators, with an emphasis on trends in employment and income. It doesn’t confine itself to use the technical definition of two quarters of negative GDP growth because it is only assessed quarterly and it is subject to revisions. By the time GDP growth is negative for two quarters, the recession is already well happening.
However, an economic downturn is defined less strict. For instance, we were in an economic downturn even with positive growth because the economic growth rate was slowing down, house prices were falling, unemployment rates were increasing and people could see the business cycle that moved from a boom period to bust. To respond to an economic slowdown and recession, government and central bank should take active roles in resolving economic issues through the use of two expansionary policies: fiscal policy and monetary policy.
然而,经济衰退的定义并不严格。例如,我们正处于经济衰退期,即使是正增长,因为经济增长率在放缓,房价在下降,失业率在上升,人们可以看到商业周期从繁荣期走向萧条。为了应对经济放缓和衰退,政府和中央银行应通过使用两种扩张性政策:财政政策和货币政策,在解决经济问题方面发挥积极作用。
While the economy is not officially in a recession, there are signs that economic activity is slowing. According to CRS Report for Congress, 2008, economic growth in the United States was negative in the fourth quarter of 2007 after two strong quarters, but turned positive in the first and second quarters of 2008. According to one data series, employment fell in every month of 2008. The unemployment rate, which rose slightly during the last half of 2007, declined in January and February of 2008, but began rising in March and by August stood at 6.1%. The continuing financial turmoil is also cause for concern. Forecasters, while projecting slower growth in 2008, remain uncertain about the likelihood of a recession. If financial market confidence is not restored and private market spreads remain elevated, the broader economy could slow due to difficulties in financing consumer durables, business investment, college education, and other big ticket items.
虽然经济并未正式陷入衰退,但有迹象表明经济活动正在放缓。根据CRS国会报告,2008年,美国经济增长在经历了两个强劲季度之后,在2007年第四季度为负,但在2008年第一和第二季度转为正。根据一个数据系列,2008年每个月的就业率都有所下降。失业率在2007年上半年略有上升,2008年1月和2月下降,但3月开始上升,到8月达到6.1%。持续的金融动荡也令人担忧。尽管预测者预测2008年经济增长将放缓,但仍不确定经济衰退的可能性。如果金融市场信心得不到恢复,私人市场利差仍在上升,由于难以为耐用消费品、商业投资、大学教育和其他大额项目融资,整体经济可能会放缓。
When the economy is down turning, economist believe the central bank should place more emphasis on short-term monetary policy as it takes fewer time to implement and its decisions to significantly decrease interest rates, and natural market adjustment, along with the already enacted stimulus, would be enough to avoid recession. When there is a massive intervention in the financial markets, the transmission of money can be stimulated into the financial sector and ultimately into the broader economy, where an important expansion of credit could significantly raise aggregate demand. It is said to emphasise more on monetary policy than fiscal policy because there are lags before a policy change affects spending. Therefore, stimulus could be delivered after the economy has already entered a recession or a recession has