本文是一篇金融学论文，基于部分t检验的结果，有两个变量对出口值有影响；即国内生产和上月CPO出口量。而认证棕榈油的自变量汇率、利率、上月CPO价格和国际大豆油价格对出口额的影响不显著。从部分决定系数的结果来看，上月CPO出口量变量对出口值的影响较大。
CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION
1.1. Research Introduction
a. Palm Oil Background
The agriculture has been the key industry of Indonesia for decades. Thisindustry is essential for supporting Indonesian economy which provides employmentto more than 49 million people in Indonesia, representing 41% of Indonesian laborforce in 2012. The agriculture industry in Indonesia also covered 23.43% of nationalGDP of Indonesia in that year (Bada, 2018). Indonesia, which located in a tropical area,provides perfect condition for plantation. The suitable factors, such as, abundant rain,humidity, and sunshine has supported the development of agriculture commodities inIndonesia. In addition, Indonesia’s soil is relatively fertile due to active volcanicactivities that provide important mineral for plantations. Because of this, Indonesia isone of main producers of agriculture products, such as, palm oil, rubber, cocoa, coffeeand spices.
Among all commodities, the primary commodity produced in Indonesia is palmoil (Elaeis Guineesis). The fruit of this palm tree is the main ingredient to createcooking oil. The palm oil is also the side ingredient to produce many varieties ofproducts, such as, soap, shampoo, candle, noodle, cocoa butter, and detergent. In fact,more than half of all products in the supermarket enclose palm oil and its derivatives(Chandran, 2009). Other than these products, the palm oil also can be utilized asbiofuel. The increase of palm oil usage each year is due to the fact that palm oil is avery productive commodity. The yield per hectare of palm oil is larger than othervegetable oil (Wulansari et al, 2016). In addition, according to Chandran (2009), theimportance of palm oil in the international trading is due to these reasons: fast marketshare growth, versatile and best-selling vegetable oil, and used in numerous products.
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1.2. Research Purpose and Contribution
The purpose of this study is to analyze the determinants of Indonesian CrudePalm Oil (CPO) exports. This study also includes the certification of sustainability forCPO (CSPO) which issued by the RSPO as one of its research variable as the innovativepoint. This study will analyze whether the certification of sustainable palm oil whichare issued by the RSPO has any impact toward Indonesian CPO export or not. In fact,the literatures on the issue of certification on export are still limited. Meanwhile, thisstudy also analyzes other factors which have indication to impact the export ofIndonesian CPO. The study will show how significant of each variables analyzed onIndonesian CPO export, denoted from the value, volume, and price, which are uniquepoint of view compared to other existing studies.
Moreover, the results will contribute to the existing literatures regardingIndonesian CPO export determinants. The results is intended to contribute to thedevelopment of Indonesian palm industry by increasing the understanding of palm oilindustry, especially regarding the issue of certification. Moreover, this study providesa new perspective of how things interact with each other, with the new challenge to beenvironmental friendly. This study may assist the other researchers and students,policymakers, business owners, traders, and other stakeholders to understand the palmoil industry and export better.
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CHAPTER II: METHODOLOGY
3.1 Variable Operation
a) Independent Variables
The independent variables of this study are these following: Certified Palm Oil(CSPO), Exchange rate, Interest rate, Domestic production, Previous month CPO price,Previous month CPO export volume and International soybean oil price.
b) Dependent Variables
The dependent variables of this research are these following: Export Value,Export Volume, and Price.
The table 3.1 explains the observed variables in this research as follow:
Table 4.2Multicollinearity Test
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