1.Inflation rate(LNF):the consumer price index(CPI)based on December2000 is used as the proxy variable of inflation rate.The specific calculationmethod is to take December 2000 as the base period and multiply themonthly CPI data of each month.
2.Real estate price(HP):the sales price of the commercial housing is used asthe proxy variable.Since there is no direct sales price of the commercialhousing,the average sales price of the commercial housing is obtained bydividing the sales volume of the commercial housing in the current month bythe sales area of the commercial housing in the current month.At the sametime,it is divided by the CPI of the current month to convert it into the salesprice of the commercial housing in December 2001.
Chapter Six:Conclusion
6.1 Conclusions
To examine the out-of-sample forecasting performance of the models Consideredin this paper,this paper estimate that reverse relationship for all time starting withJanuary 2017 to April 2022,as the sample period,moving up one month each.Hypothesis of the study was expected an inverse relationship due to prospect theory.People when forecasting of misfortune their decision is made to avoid loss when theyinvest on real estate in a time of inflation causing the sales of real estate drop and theopposite when inflation goes down the expectation of good result is being forecastingby people which lead the raise of houses sales.However,results were as show thesame expectation but with a gab impact.In the year 2017 and 2019 the findings wereinverse relationship that when inflation increased that affected the sales of propertiesto decline.There was a gab of one month when the impact of the inflation rate starttaking a place to influence on the real estate market to be in opposite side direction.In2020 the result shows that there is undefined relationship between inflation and realestate market change.And this maybe of the serious time impact of covid19-for allsectors in turkey in the year of 2020 also many empirical studies show the strongimpact of covid-19 on real estate market.In 2021 and 2022 results of this study showsa high reverse impact of inflation rate to real estate market that when the percentageof inflation increased that cause a sharp decrease in the figure of houses sold in thereal estate market.Also,when inflation went down that cause the increase of marketsales which can be seen in table number for December of the year 2021 and Januaryand February of the beginning of 2022.
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