土耳其房地产价格与销售波动对通货膨胀的相关性探讨

ney will changedue to the change of the total price level including asset price,and the consumptiondemand and the total demand level will also change accordingly.If the total supplylevel of society stays unchanged,the general price level will be affected.Friedman(l957)and Modigliani(1963)respectively put forward the“permanent income theory”and the“life cycle hypothesis”in their modern consumption function theory.Bothbelieve that in addition to the current and earlier disposable income,the expectedincome and wealth in the future will have an important impact on the consumptionlevel of residents.The wealth mentioned here refers to the stock of material wealth ofresidents,including financial assets and real estate and other physical assets held byresidents in the form of cash,bank deposits,bonds,and stocks.Changes in n-typeconsumption demand will lead to changes in price level.Therefore,monetary policymakers should stabilize asset prices including real estate,bonds,and stocks,as well asproduction Consumer and service prices.Alchian and Kleinugts pointed out in theirarticle on the correct measurement of inflation that the monetary authorities shouldnot only focus on commodity prices but also on asset prices.They believed that theGDP deflator or CPI was flawed,did not consider the future changes in commodityprices,only considered the current consumer prices,and found that asset prices were agood substitute.

2.2 Real estate market

Housing markets are a blend of a territorial and National financial and so affectedby changes in these economies.Specialist proposed that housing markets areconstantly acclimating to balance where cost range is changed by variety in supplyaffected by changes public and local economies[13-17].This joint flawed attribute ofhousing’s business sectors guarantees that hazard is generally present,its furtherelevate by the enormous capital expense of land and need to use obligation financingfor securing essentially expanding the openness to risk.

Housing markets are isolated into classes considering the distinction among theproperty types and their enticement for various business sectors members.All genuineestates markets are affected by the elevations,inspiration and connections ofpurchasers and merchants of genuine property which assistant are dependent uponmany social,monetary,legislative,and natural impacts,these business sectors areprivate,business,and modern[18-20].

Housing’s business sectors are wasteful and because of blemishes,for example,absence of item normalization and the time expected to create latest item,this makesit hard to precisely expect market conduct.Shortcoming in the market empowervalues to constantly personality underestimated properties[21-24].

Chapter Three:Research Methodology..........................22

3.1 Research Design............................22

3.2 Data Collection........................................22

Chapter Four:Theoretical Analysis................................26

4.1 Theoretical Analysis of Real Estate Price on Inflation...................................26

4.2 The Impact of Real Estate Price Fluctuation on Consumption Demand...............................26

Chapter Five:Test Results and Analysis........................37

5.1 Empirical Test Results&Analysis..............................37

5.1.1 Selection and Description of Variables............................37

5.1.2 Granger Causality Test..................................38

Chapter Five:Test Results and Analysis

5.1 Empirical Test Results&Analysis

5.1.1 Selection and Description of Variables

The choice of variables mainly comes from the theoretical analysis of this paperand combines with other inflation influencing factors to carry out real empiricalanalysis,which can more comprehensively analyze how real estate prices affectinflation.Therefore,the variables studied in this paper include house price,output,inflation rate,money supply and interest rate.This paper uses the monthly data fromJanuary 2017 to April 2022,a total of