导读: 这是一篇金融学assignment范文，论文讨论了美联储加息对中国的影响。美联储加息对中国股市有着潜在的影响。美联储加息之后，美元指数持续下跌，从而影响人民币在岸价格上涨，另外还会刺激大宗商品的价格变动。美联储加息仅在短线会对美元指数有作用，进而影响人民币汇率。但中期来看，美元指数依旧会维持小幅震荡，而人民币汇率也不存在大幅波动空间。
Assignment题目：Impact of fed rate hike on China
The fed has raised interest rates seven times since December 2015 and embarked on a programme of balance-sheet reduction in the wake of the financial crisis to gradually unwind ultra-loose monetary policy. Data collected by the federal reserve since its may monetary policy meeting showed continued strength in the U.S. labor market and steady growth in economic activity, according to a U.S. statement. Employment has soared in the past few months and unemployment has been falling. American household consumption is growing faster, and business fixed asset investment is growing rapidly. Inflation, a key measure of the fed's activity, is close to the fed's target of 2 percent for overall U.S. inflation and for items other than food and energy, according to data from last year. This time, the fed adjusted the timing and size of the federal funds rate through a comprehensive assessment of economic growth, full employment and inflation. The fed is expected to raise interest rates four times this year, based on data on employment and inflation. The median forecast from the fed shows the fed funds rate is expected to be 2.375 percent at the end of 2018 and 2.125 percent in March. The federal funds rate is expected to be 3.125 percent at the end of 2019 and 2.875 percent in March. The federal funds rate at the end of 2020 and longer term was 3.375% and 2.875%, respectively, both unchanged from march expectations.
自2015年12月以来，美联储已七次加息，并在金融危机后开始实施资产负债表减持计划，逐步解除超宽松货币政策。根据美国的一份声明，美联储自可能货币政策会议以来收集的数据显示，美国劳动力市场持续走强，经济活动稳步增长。就业人数在过去几个月飙升，失业率一直在下降。美国家庭消费增长更快，商业固定资产投资增长迅速。根据去年的数据，通货膨胀是美联储活动的一个关键指标，接近美联储对美国整体通胀和食品和能源以外的其他项目2％的目标。这一次，美联储通过对经济增长，充分就业和通胀的综合评估调整了联邦基金利率的时间和规模。根据就业和通胀数据，美联储预计今年将加息四次。美联储的预测中值显示，联邦基金利率预计在2018年底为2.375％，3月为2.125％。联邦基金利率预计在2019年底为3.125％，3月为2.875％。 2020年底和长期的联邦基金利率分别为3.375％和2.875％，均与行预期持平。
The fed's interest rate hike is mainly considered from the following two aspects: "basic rate hike conditions" "and" "future rate hike demand" ". Among them, the "basic rate hike condition", also known as the precondition for a rate hike, refers to the two basic indicators of the fed's rate hike: employment status and inflation level. Data showed that the number of U.S. non-farm payrolls rose by more than 300, 000 in early may, and the full nonfarm payrolls report was a testament to the relative prosperity of the U.S. labor market, even though the wage growth was slightly weaker than expected in the same period. Second, last week's core CPI rate was 1.8 per cent, below the fed's 2 per cent target but at least within the acceptable range. In addition, the university of Michigan's consumer confidence index released recently was higher than expected, indicating that the overall consumption level also met the fed's requirements for raising interest rates. "Demand for future interest rate hikes" refers to the need for the fed to consider not only the two major indicators, but also the stimulus measures of tax reform to boost the economy. If there is potential risk that the economy will overheat, it needs to raise the interest rate to control the economic growth.
When a country appear rising prices, leading to inflation, will need to be raised benchmark interest rates, the fed to raise interest rates in order to prevent prices rising too fast, the fed's inflation target is 2%, the sign is beneficial to promoting economic growth, so when the rate of inflation rising accompanied with constantly raising interest rates, so that you can prevent prices rising too fast. Interest rate hikes are aimed at reducing the money supply, curbing consumption, curbing inflation, encouraging savings and slowing market speculation. Higher interest rates can also be used as an indirect means of boosting the value
