Abstracts of Papers 论文摘要December 16, 2006
Section 1 (English) Keynote Session I: China's Labor Market: Overviews
[1] "Making Labor Relations Work for China: Lessons from the Outside World"
从他国经验看如何理顺中国的劳动关系
Richard Freeman, Harvard University and NBER, USA (美国哈佛大学，美国国家经济研究局)
[2] "China's Three Transitions and Its Implications for Social Security and Labor Market"
中国经济的三次转折及其对社会保险、劳动力市场的影响
Athar Hussain, London School of Economics, UK (英国伦敦经济学院)
[3] "Some Potential Stumbling Blocks in China's Growth Path"
中国经济增长方式一些潜在的绊脚石
Wing Thye Woo, University of California, Davis, USA and Brookings Institute, USA (美国加州大学戴维斯校区, 布鲁金斯学会)
Section 2A (English) Applied Econometrics (I): Income
[1] "One-Child Policy, Fertility and Growth"
独生子女政策、生育率和经济发展
Hongbin Li (李宏彬) Chinese University of Hong Kong, HKSAR, China (香港中文大学)
Junsen Zhang, Chinese University of Hong Kong, HKSAR, China
[2] "Selection Bias, Comparative Advantage and Heterogeneous Returns to Education: Evidence from China"
选择偏差、相对优势和教育回报率差异：来自中国的证据
James J. Heckman, University of Chicago
Xuesong Li (李雪松) ([email protected]), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China (中国社科院数量与技术经济研究所)
Abstract: This paper uses newly available Chinese micro data to estimate the return to college education for late 20th century China when allowing for heterogeneous returns among individuals selecting into schooling based on these differences. We use recently developed semiparametric methods to identify the parameters of interest. We demonstrate that heterogeneity among people in returns to schooling is substantial. People sort into schooling on the basis of the principle of comparative advantage, which we document to be an empirically important phenomenon in modern Chinese labor markets. The effect on earnings of sending a randomly selected person to college is a 43% increase in lifetime earnings (nearly 11% annually) in 2000 for young people in urban areas of six provinces of China. The effect of college on those who go is 13%. Our evidence implies that after 20-plus years of economic reform with market orientation, the average return to education has increased substantially in China, compared to the returns measured in the 1980’s and the early 1990’s.
摘要：本文使用最新的中国微观数据测算20世纪末中国的本科教育回报率。测算中，我们考虑了个体回报率差异以及基于这种差异而产生的教育决策的差异。我们采用新近开发的各种半参数方法来进行参数识别。我们的研究表明教育回报率在个体之间存在明显差异。人们根据相对优势的原则将自己归于不同的教育水平类别。我们的实证研究表明这一现象在当代中国的劳动力市场上确实是一个重要现象。根据我们的测算，将在2000年6个中国省份中随机选择的一个年轻人赋予本科教育会使他的一生收入增加43%，也就是年均11%。相应的，本科教育对于那些自己选择接受本科教育的人的收入影响是年均13%。我们的研究证据显示经过20年以上的市场化的经济改革，相对20世纪80年代和90年代早期，中国的平均教育回报率增加显著。
[3] "A Spatial Econometric Analysis of the Impact of Labor Migration on the Disparity of Regional Economic Development in Mainland China"
Zhengming Qian (钱争鸣), Xiamen University
Xiuhua Zhang, Xiamen University
Yangping Yu, Xiamen University
Pengfei Guo, Xiamen University
Abstract: Labor migration has significant influences on regional economic development. There are two opposing views on such influences. One view suggests that labor migration narrows regional economic disparity while the other persists in that labor migration broadens regional economic disparity. Based on China’s provincial economic data, this paper constructs spatial econometric model for empirical analyses after taking the spatial dependence among regions into account. The empirical results show that labor migration exerts different impacts on economic development in different regions. In particular, the labor inflow broadens regional economic disparity whereas labor outflow narrows regional economic disparity.
Section 2B (English) Labor Markets of OECD Countries (I): Public Policy
[1] "Does the Impact of Welfare to Work Depend on the State of the Labor Market? The Case of the UK New Deal for Young People"
“从福利到就业”政策的影响是否依赖于劳动力市场形势：英联邦对年轻人新政的案例研究)
Duncan McVicar, Queen's University Belfast, UK
Jan Podivinsky, University of Southampton, UK (英国南安普敦大学)
Abstract: There is much debate, but surprisingly little evidence, concerning the impact of primarily suppl
