纺织品和服装出口贸易的背景
1．中国的情况
中国自2001年起成为世界贸易组织的一个成员,享有多项福利。这些福利包括2005年配额逐步取消；按纺织品及服装协定自动增加配额，按规定的自然月增长率增长。在过去的7年，中国作为世贸组织的新成员获得的利益与其他成员国一致的。
这些变化对中国在其主要出口市场上的表现产生了巨大影响。举例来说, 2002年,美国从中国进口纺织品和服装增长了125%,这个证明了2003首三个月的增长趋势。与此同时,服装出口增长了60%。中国出口商降低了价格,以便取得更大的市场份额。他们之所以这样做,还有其他的原因,由于配额租金降低，中国企业投入了大量的机器和技术来增加生产力。
在无配额的日本市场上就可以看出中国出口大量增加的影响。2001年日本从中国进口服装超过了其需求的三分之二,增幅超过66%达到10年来的最高。如果日本的例子在其他市场重复出现，将对其他的服装出口国产生深远的影响，尤其是那些小国家。
许多发展中国家的制衣商推测,美国和欧盟可能就中国加入世贸组织议定书再次对中国纺织品和服装出口提出配额限制。如果中国的出口"威胁阻碍这些产品贸易的有序发展"，世贸组织成员可以推出专门针对中国纺织品出口过渡性保障措施,直到2008年12月31日为止。世贸组织并没有通知需要这样做。除此之外,万一市场遭到破坏，成员或可以引进具体产品的保护措施来应对任何产品(包括纺织品及成衣产品),直到2013年12月。在这种情况下,他们需要通知世界贸易组织保障措施委员会并与中国达成协议。这种猜测,两个主要的危险原因。一是主要进口国将利用这些保障只保护本国产业而非保护其他发展中国家的生产者。其次, 如果美国和欧盟重新施加配额，中国也可考虑采取报复行动。所以其他国家在面对向巨大的中国市场的出口的机会的同时，仔细的考虑这个问题。
2．来自中国的机遇与挑战
中国目前是世界上最大的纺织品服装供应商和第二大生产国,已成为一个实际竞争者地位。日本是一个主要的无配额纺织品及服装进口的市场，2002估计价值分别为45亿美元和176.00亿美元。中国在1995年至2002年分别占日本进口的纺织品41.1和66.5%,相应的服装数据在这两年内分别惊人的达到了59.1%和77.5%。此外,作为世贸组织成员,中国在短时间内在其他纺织品及成衣市场取得了统治地位。例如, 1995年中国分别供应19.3%和5.9%纺织品进口澳大利亚和南非。到2002年相应的市场份额已扩大到的35.2%和18.5%。更主要的是中国服装--1995年分别以市场占有率54.3%澳大利亚和南非的29%,而到2002年已分别高达70.4%和56.3%。
原稿二
BACKGROUND NOTE ON THE IMPACT OF QUOTA PHASING OUT ON TEXTILES AND CLOTHING PRODUCTION AND TRADE
1．The China Factor
Since December 2001 China has been a member of the WTO and enjoys a range of benefits. These benefits include the 2005 quota phase-out; automatic quota increases as stipulated in the ATC; and the growth-on-growth provision whereby, under the ATC and as a new WTO member, the country receives benefits accorded to other member countries during the past seven years.
These changes have had a tremendous impact on China’s performance in the major exporting markets. For example, US textiles and clothing imports from China increased by 125% in 2002, a trend confirmed in the first three months of 2003. www.51lunwen.org/transample/ In the same period, apparel exports increased by 60%. Chinese exporters reduced their prices in order to gain a greater share in the market. They were able to do so, among other reasons, because quota rents were reduced and Chinese enterprises increased their productivity by investing heavily in new machinery and technology.
The impact of the vast increase in Chinese exports can already be seen in the quota-free Japanese market. In 2001, Japan imported more than two-thirds of its total garment requirements from China, an increase of 66% over ten years. If the Japanese example is repeated in other markets it would create deep concerns for many exporting countries, especially the smaller ones.
Many developing country garment manufacturers speculate that the United States and the EU might reintroduce quotas on China’s textile and clothing exports, a move that is possible under China’s WTO accession protocol. WTO members can introduce transitional safeguard measures specifically against Chinese textile and clothing imports until 31 December 2008 if Chinese exports “threaten to impede the orderly development of trade in these products”. No notification to WTO is needed in this case. On top of that, members can introduce product-specific safeguards against any products (including textile and clothing products) until December 2013 in case of market disruption. In this case, however, they need to notify the WTO Committee on Safeguards and reach an agreement with China. Such speculation, however, is dangerous for two principal reasons. First, major importing countries will use such safeguards only to protect their national industries, rather than to protect any other developing country producer. Second, China could also consider retaliation if the EU and the United States re-impose quotas. Countries will think twice before risking their export opportunities to the large Chinese market.
2．The Challenges and Opportunities from China
China, currently the world’s largest clothing supplier and second largest textiles producer, has been an actual competitor of the region. Japan is a major non-quota market with textiles
