摘 要
自2014 年8 月引入做市商制度以来，新三板市场迅猛发展。2015 年7 月，中国证券业协会发布的《场外证券业务管理办法》第二条将场外市场定义为在上海、深圳证券交易所、期货交易所和全国中小企业股份转让系统以外开展的证券业务，这标志着新三板市场摆脱了“非主流”的标签，在中国资本市场占有一席之地。在新三板上市的企业在整个资本市场中的地位也相对有了较大提高，对于新三板股票的市场流通也是非常好的一个信息，为新三板企业顺利的通过股权融资提供了一定的保障。而此时新三板企业股票发行价格的确定则受到了更多因素的影响，如何确定新三板股票的价格既要充分考虑企业的融资需要，同时也要结合经典的定价模型，将影响新三板股票价格的相关影响纳入到股票价格的确定过程中去，以更加精确而客观的确定股票价格。
本文以新三板市场的股票价格的影响因素为主要研究对象，通过广泛阅读了相关文献，在深入研究各类股票定价理论和模型的基础上，运用定性分析与定量计算相结合的实证分析法探索新三板股票定价的主要影响因素。文章首先对国内外相关文献进行综述，总结前人研究成果。在前人研究成果的基础上，提出全文的研究方法和思路，为全文研究的展开指引了方向；然后对理论界各种股票定价模型和相关理论进行了详细的介绍，为新三板股票价格的确定提供参考依据，同时为后没价格影响因素研究的展开打下了基础；再次，运用主成分分析法、回归分析法等定量分析方法，结合目前我国在新三板上市的部分公司股票的相关指标对影响新三板股票价格的主要影响进行了分析，找出影响新三板股票价格最深远的影响；最后就如何充分利用新三板股票定价的主要因素以及如何将这些因素与经典的股票定价模型相结合提出了政策建议，为以后在新三板上市企业股票的定价提供了参考依据。
关键词：新三板；股票定价；影响因素
Abstract
Since the introduction of the market maker system in August 2014, three new board market rapid development. In July 2015, Chinese Securities Industry Association issued the "securities business management" second OTC OTC market is defined as carried out in Shanghai, the Shenzhen stock exchange, the futures exchange and the National SME share transfer system of the securities business, which marks the new third market to get rid of the "Non mainstream" label, occupy a space for one person in Chinese capital market.In the new three board listed companies in the capital market position is relatively has been greatly improved, a new board stock market information for circulation is also very good, for three new board business smoothly through equity financing and provide a guarantee. While the new board companies issued stock price determination is influenced by many factors, how to determine the new board stock price should fully consider the financing needs of enterprises, but also to combine the classical pricing model, will affect the related effects of three new board stock price into the process of determining the stock price to go to a more accurate and objective determination of stock price.
In this paper, factors affecting the market three new board stock price as the main research object, through extensive reading of the relevant literature, based on in-depth study of all kinds of stock pricing theory and model, main factors affecting the empirical use of qualitative analysis and quantitative calculation analysis method to explore the new board stock pricing. At first, the paper summarizes the relevant literature at home and abroad, and summarizes the previous research results. On the basis of previous research results, put forward methods and ideas of the whole thesis and direction for the development of the whole research; then gives a detailed introduction to the theory of various stock pricing model and related theory, provide a reference for determining the new board stock price, at the same time as the no price influence factors is carried out to study the foundation; thirdly, using principal component analysis method for quantitative analysis of regression analysis method, and combining our country's relevant indicators in the three new board listed on the main part of the company's stock. Three new board stock price response is analyzed, find out the influence of the new board stock prices the most far-reaching; finally, how to the main factors of the new board of stock pricing and how stock pricing model of these factors with the classic combination of policy suggestions for the future In three new board listed companies to provide a reference for the pricing of the stock.
Keywords：The Three new board; Stock pricing;Influencing factors
目录
第1章绪论 1
1.1本文选题背景和意义 1
1.1.1选题背景 1
1.1.2选题意义 3
1.2文献综述 4
1.2.1 国内文献 4
1.2.2 国外文献 7
1.3研究思路、主要内容和研究方法 9
1.3.1 研究思路和主要内容 9
1.3.2 研究方法 10
第2章股票定价理论概述 12
2.1 股票定价主要方法 12
2.1.1 IPO定价主要理论及定价方法的比较分析 12
2.1.2 相对估价法原理 12
2.1.3 贴现现金流估价法 13
2.1.4 期权定价法 15
2.1.5 多因素回归分析方法 17
2.2 样本选取 18
第3章实证分析 19
3.1 样本数据的收集和处理 19
3.1.1 样本选取 19
3.1.2指标筛选 19
3.2 实证分析 20
3.2.1 模型介绍 20
3.2.2 定量计算 25
3.3 实证结果解析 31
第4章结论与建议 32
3.1 研究结论 32
3.2 政策建议 33
参考文献…………………………………………………………………
