摘要：为了提高桥梁施工企业的风险管理水平，有效地防范桥梁施工中各种风险。针对桥梁施工阶段风险特点，结合国内外风险管理理论，从风险识别，风险评估以及风险管理三个方面进行系统的研究。
1、从结构与设计因素、施工因素、水文因素、地质因素、气象因素几个方面的因素来对桥梁施工事故进行了分析。总结了国内外对桥梁施工风险研究的主要成果，并总结出了适合我国国情的风险分析理论。
2、对于桥梁施工阶段各个环节可能存在的事故隐患进行风险识别研究。分析了桥梁施工过程中的风险的特点，阐述了桥梁施工过程中常见的风险类型。归纳了桥梁施工阶段的风险识别过程、依据和方法。通过类比、分析、归纳，得出桥梁施工中可能出现的风险因素。对深水或软弱河床桥梁施工中风险因素进行分类总结。对桥梁施工过程中各种风险因素（结构因素、设计因素、施工因素、水文因素、地质因素、气象因素）进行排序。
3、采用层次分析法（AHP）对某大型桥梁施工项目进行了风险评估。首先建立了层次结构模型，接着构造判断矩阵及层次单排序一致性检验，然后进行组合权重计算及层次总排序一致性检验，最后进行了总体优先级排序，并以某桥梁施工阶段实际的调研结果验证了该方法的正确性。建立了桥梁施工的风险评价模型和管理程序。本论文由无忧论文网www.51lunwen.org整理提供利用蒙特卡罗法对0，1随机数进行了线性回归分析，结果表明该方法对桥梁施工风险评估十分有效。结合桥梁风险识别研究，在对桥梁施工风险后果进行分类的基础上，提出了基于量化思想的桥梁施工风险后果估算方法。通过建立各级风险后果估计模型，实现对桥梁施工风险后果进行系统、全面的估计。
4、在进行桥梁施工过程中风险因素的基础上分析了目前存在的几种风险评估方法，并且提出综合利用层次分析法和模糊综合评价法的风险评估方法。
关键词：桥梁施工；风险识别；风险评估；风险管理
ABSTRACT: In order to improve the level of risk management and prevent all kinds of risk in bridge construction effectively. Pointing at the property of risk in bridge construction, integrating the risk management theory from home and abroad, and the system study was caught out in terms of risk identification, risk assessment, risk management.
1 The accident of bridge construction was analyzed based on structure and design factor, construction factor, hydro logic factor, geologic factor, meteorological factor. The main achievement of risk research for bridge construction was summed up, the risk analysis theory suiting for our country was also summed up.
2 The risk identification study about possible dangers in bridge construction was studied. The character of risk in bridge construction was analyzed, the usual risk types in bridge construction was elaborated. The process, basis and method of risk identification in bridge construction were induced. The possible risk factors in bridge construction were acquired based on analogy, analysis and conclusion. The risk factors were analyzed in bridge with depth or feeble riverbed. The risk factors in bridge construction were sorted, such as structure factor, design factor, construction factor, hydro logic factor, geologic factor, meteorological factor. 3 The risk assessment for a large-scale bridge construction project by AHP method. The hierarchical structure model was constructed firstly, and then the comparison matrix was constructed, and the consistency test was caught out, the whole priority sorting was put up at last. The correctness of the method was verified through actual research for risk accident of a bridge.www.51lunwen.orgThe linear regression analysis was analyzed for 0, 1 random number using Monte-Carlo method, the result indicated that the method was an effective method for bridge construction. The consequence appraisal procedure for bridge construction was offered based on quantification thought combining risk identification study and basing on sorting for risk aftereffect. The risk analysis was analyzed fully through constructing risk assessment model.
4 The comparation of the several risk evaluation method was carried out based on analyzing the risk factor in bridge construction, The good method that combined the AHP method with fuzzy general evaluation method.
KEYWORDS：bridge construction; risk identification; risk assessment; risk management
目录
中文摘要 iii
ABSTRACT iv
序 vi
1 引言 1
1.1 本文研究背景和意义 1
1.2 国内外研究现状 4
1.2.1 国外研究现状 4
1.2.2 国内研究现状 7
1.3 本文主要研究内容 9
2 桥梁施工阶段的风险识别 10
2.1 理论基础 10
2.1.1风险识别主要内容 10
2.1.2 风险识别的工具与方法 12
2.2桥梁施工阶段风险的特点及常见的风险事故 14
2.2.1 桥梁施工阶段风险的特点 14
2.2.2 桥梁施工阶段常见的风险事故 15
2.3桥梁施工阶段的风险识别过程、依据和方法 18
2.3.1风险识别的过程 18
2.3.2 桥梁施工阶段风险源识别的依据 18
2.3.3风险识别方法 19
2.4桥梁施工阶段的风险的分解及风险因素识别 19
2.4.1风险的分解 19
2.4.2风险因素识别 19
2.6 桥梁施工中风险因素水平分析 27
2.6.1结构条件 27
2.6.2设计条件 27
2.6.3 施工条件 28
2.6.4 水文条件 28
2.6.5 地质条件 28
2.6.6 气象条件 29
2.6.7 各因素风险水平排序 29
2.7本章小结 30
3 桥梁施工阶段的风险评估 31
3.1工程项目风险估计 31
3.1.1工程项目风险估计概述 31
3.1.2工程项目风险事件发生概率计算 31
3.1.3风险事件损失的估计 32
3.1.4确定型风险估计 33
3.1.5不确定型风险估计 33
3.2工程项目风险评价 34
3.2 工程项目风险评价的目的及步骤 35
3.2.2工程项目风险评价的标准及其风险水平比较 35
3.2.3工程项目风
