录目 录 1
摘 要 2
Abstract 3
第一章 绪 论 4
1.1 论文写作背景及目的 4
1.2 文献综述 5
1.2.1 历届奥运会对举办国旅游业的影响 5
1.2.2 我国旅游业发展概况 6
1.2.3 青岛旅游业的自身特点 12
1.2.4 青岛旅游业存在的主要问题 13
1.2.5 相关机构对2008年旅游业发展的预测 14
1.3 论文研究内容及结构 14
1.3.1 研究问题概述 14
1.3.2 论文结构 15
第二章 研究方法 16
第三章 结果分析与讨论 17
3.1 2008奥运会对青岛入境游的影响 18
3.1.1 直接影响 18
5.1.2 间接影响 21
5.2 2008奥运会青岛国内旅游的影响 23
5.3 2008奥运会青岛出境游的影响 25
5.4 2008奥运会为青岛旅游业带来的机遇与挑战 27
第四章 结论和建议 28
4.1 一些建设性意见 28
4.2 结论 29
参考文献 31
摘 要
旅游业作为世界经济的一项重要产业，其发展不但为社会创造了客观的财富，同时大大刺激到了世界经济的茁壮成长。通过研究奥运会对历届举办城市旅游业的影响，对奥运会为青岛旅游业带来的影响进行评估和预测，可以找到青岛旅游业存在的不足，做到未雨绸缪，以便更好的利用这以契机大力发展青岛的旅游产业。本文对奥运会对历届举办城市旅游业影响进行了评述，分析了我国旅游业发展现状和青岛市旅游业的特点和不足，提出本研究的主要目的以及论文结构。文章在假设基础之上，采用定性和定量两种方式分别对青岛的入境旅游、出境旅游和国内旅游三个部分进行预测，分析2008北京奥运会对国际国内旅游的影响和作用。最后得出结论并提出一些相关建议。首先，2008北京奥运对中国及青岛市的旅游业影响呈马鞍型分布。即从现在开始，旅游经济增长速度逐年提高，奥运会当年达到最大值，随后增长逐渐缓慢。其旅游业增长速度一直以不低于10%。其次，入境旅游以及国内旅游人数大增，收益显著。再次，比赛场馆、酒店、环境治理工程、道路交通等各项基础设施建设有相当程度的提高，旅游业的管理、竞争意识有所加强。最后，2008年到青岛的国内游客的增加，将导致去其他地方的国内市场有所下降。2008年奥运会出境游人数的增长不会对国内旅游造成影响。关于负面影响，离开青岛、躲避奥运会的人数是微不足道的。
关键词：奥运会；旅游业；影响；预测
Abstract
Tourism industry, as an important industry of the international economy, its development can not only create a large amount of wealth for society, but can stimulate the growth of international economy greatly. We can find disadvantages of Qingdao tourism industry and make it better for developing its tourism industry, by the way of researching the effects on Olympics to all the previous host cities. and the assessments for the influence that the Olympics brought out to Qingdao’s tourist industry. In this paper, we firstly reviewed the Olympic Games influence to all previous host cities. We have also analyzed the current situation in China and the characteristic and deficiency Qingdao’s tourism industry. The purpose to this research and the thesis structure were then listed. Based on some hypothesis, we predicted the inbound, outbound and home tourism separately adopting qualitative and quantitative analysis. And then we came to the conclusions below: First of all, the effects of 2008 Olympic Games to Qingdao’s tourism industry showed to be saddle-shaped. Namely, from now on, the tourist economy growth rate was improved year by year, in the year 2008 it reached the maximum, and increase gradually slowly afterwards. Its growth rate of tourist industry has been for not lower than 10% all the time. Secondly, the inbound market and internal travel are to be heightened, the income will be remarkable. Moreover, the basic construction of competition gymnasiums and stadiums, hotels, environmental improvement projects, road traffic, etc. will have improvement to no small extent, the management; competition consciousness of tourism industry will be strengthened to some extent. Finally, the raise in domestic visitor number in Qingdao will decrease the number in other market to some extent. The growth outbound market in 2008 Olympic Games will not influence internal market. Besides, the negative effect, people leaving Qingdao to avoid Olympics are to be few.
Key words：Olympic Games；Tourism industry；Influence；Prediction
