本报告探讨了过去五年英国住房市场的供需基础设施内发生的情况，以及未来五年可能会对其造成的影响。它还调查了在同一时期对提名的英国建筑商产生的直接后果。报告的主要内容首先是通过文献检索和使用在线来源来检查构成供应，需求，其相互作用和对所涉利益相关者的最终影响的因素。一旦讨论了供需框架，将描述J Smart＆Co.的业务活动、对公司资产负债表进行的财务和经济检查以及与其相关的因素捆绑在一起，包括提及的优势和劣势，以及公司的土地储备的参考。然后，结论将总结主要的研究结果，因此任何紧急的新情况都能在此范畴内被允许。
供求因素——Supply & Demand Factors
Simply put, a rise in a commodities price will cause a contraction in its demand; similarly a fall in price causes an expansion of demand. However, increasing the demand by a means other than price causes a higher level of demand at each and every price level, the aggregate of increased demand and an inelastic supply causes a sharp rise in market equilibrium price, this is the UK Housing Market (Fig 2).
Fig 2 Demand Curve illustrating an increase in Price P causing a contraction in Quantity demanded Q, however increasing Demand from D1 to D2 increases demand at each and every price level. Source Wikipedia.
Below are social and political factors that affect the supply and demand curve for a traded item. Though this report doesn't have the scope to cover every factor in detail it will deal with those which are felt to be most pertinent in today's environment.
需求因素——Demand Factors
Interest Rates
Population Structure
Price of Substitute
Price of Compliment
Taste/ Fashions
Quality
Level of Population
Advertising Publicity
Consumer Expectation
Supply Factors
Planning RegulationsOutput
Price
Government policy
Family Circumstances
EmploymentLand
Labour
Capital
Factor Incomes
需求因素——Demand Factors
Fig 3 (a) Average of the Halifax and Nationwide measures from 1991 onwards. Prior to that, the Halifax measure is used as the Nationwide measure is not available at a monthly frequency.
The published Halifax index has been adjusted in 2002 by the Bank of England to account for a change in the method of calculation. (b) Average house price divided by average annual earnings. Average annual earnings based on the 2007 annual survey of hours and earnings (ASHE) and the average earnings index (AEI).
Income is an enabler, the higher a persons salary the greater the potential purchasing power and available amount to borrow. In the past, income has grown broadly with inflation (source ONS), and until the 1980's house prices have thusly followed suit. However, increasing competition in the finance sector since the mid 1990's saw >100% mortgage products being offered, for the last five years house prices have been in excess of the salary multiplier (see Fig 3), thus allowing people who couldn't normally buy a home to side step the traditional bottle-neck of saving for a deposit, this in turn has added pressure on a largely inelastic UK housing stock when the number of newly built private & social houses are in decline.
利率——Interest rates
Fig 4 Changing Bank of England Base Rate over time
The last 5 years have seen historically low interest rates (2.0% at the time of writing Fig 4), which until recently has fluctuated around 5% making conditions for property investment quite favourable. This trend has been halted however by uncertainty in the money market, as banks continue to uphold Libor against a back drop of a falling Bank of England base rate. The interest rate is the government's monetary policy tool which operates through the independent Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to keep inflation stable and attempt to maintain steady economic growth. A high interest rate reduces demand for housing by deterring long term borrowing and credit dependence. It is termed by some economists as a blunt instrument and likened by Keynes, in The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, to "pushing on a piece of string" (Larry Elliot, Guardian 18/12/08), as the affects of rate changes can be far reaching but slow to act; it is however commonly held to be the most effective way of maintaining long term economic growth (Biz/ed).
人口结构——Population Structure
The UK is seeing an increasing trend as in many western economies as standard of living improves (c.f. GDP), so does average life exp
