津巴布韦农业和食品价值链融入区域和全球价值链的路径思考： 基于CGE GTAP-VA 分析方法

ansion of trade activities beyond local communities and it led to the emergence of international trade. International trade then brought about increases in the potential consumers and the need for mass production and hence, the mass production and  logistics  of  the  transportation  led  to  economies  of  scale  which  in  turn  led  to  further reduction  in  transport  costs  thereby  further  increasing  trade.  This  is  when  the  point  of consumption was unbundled from the point of production and goods travelled all over the world to the most profitable markets (Baldwin et al. 2015). 

Figure 5 Theoretical Framework for GVC Source: (World Trade Organisation, 2017)

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CHAPTER 3 METHODOLOGY..................22

3.1 METHODOLOGY ....................................... 22

3.1.1 GTAP_VA Model ..................................... 23

3.2 RESEARCH DESIGN ............................ 23

CHAPTER 4 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION..................30

4.1 BASELINE SIMULATION RESULTS .......................................... 32

4.1.1 Domestic and Foreign Content of Bilateral Exports by Sector ..................................... 32

4.1.2 Bilateral direct/indirect domestic value added by originating sector ...................................... 34

CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSION...................50

5.1 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS....................... 50

CHAPTER 4 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

4.1 Baseline Simulation Results

According to Hertel et al. (2001) the baseline scenario reflects the economic changes in the absence of any policy change and should closely reflect the expected changes that should occur. To obtain the value-added decomposition, the simulation computed the local and global inverse Leontief matrices8  and the results for the indicators were as follows: 

4.1.1 Domestic and Foreign Content of Bilateral Exports by Sector

This indicator is represented by the coefficient VADECOMP9  which is defined in terms of the trading sector, exporter, importer and origin of the DVA, FVA and DDC.

Table 4 Domestic and Foreign Content of Bilateral Exports in ZWE’s sectoral Exports to SADC and China (VADECOMP, US$ Millions).

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CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSION

5.1 Conclusion and Recommendations

Trade liberalisation is an important phenomenon that is expected to benefit the countries involved in the trade  agreement.  Moreover,  technology  transfer  is  meant  to  improve  productivity  and  the  economic development of a nation. With the concern that Zimbabwe’s economy continues to face challenges in its agriculture and industrial sectors even though it is involved in various trade agreements and Aid has been received  to  try  and  increase  productivity,  this  study  proposed  to  develop  and  integrate  Zimbabwe’s Agriculture  and  Food  Value  Chain  into  Regional  and  Global  Value  Chains.  As  Zimbabwe  is  part of  the SADC and involved in trade agreements with some of the country members and as it faces an opportunity to partner with China under the China-Africa Cooperation, the research narrowed the aggregation to include Zimbabwe,  SADC  regional  members,  China  and  ROW.  The  study  made  use  of  a  novel  GTAP-VA methodology for GVC analysis with the objective of improving Zimbabwe’s participation in the GVC and to diversify and increase exports through a bilateral FTA and output augmenting technical change on all Agriculture and Food sectors. To achieve that, three scenarios were proposed; baseline scenario for analysing Zimbabwe’s GVC before any policy; bilateral FTA between Zimbabwe and SADC