Abstract 摘要
As the opening of financial markets and the development of economy in China, there are many activities of Merger and Acquisition on real estate industry. More and more people start to study the real estate industry. Due to the fact that the real estate account for a majority percentage of the whole GDP, the development of this industry may affect the economy of whole country. Not only the government and financial institutions but also every citizensare paying attention to the trend of real estate. Each policy and event can lead a fluctuation on the macro-economy. With the entryof the global economy of China, there are some severe problems on the old state-owned enterprises and the system. Some exposures can provide some effective and feasible methods for M & A , however, these exposures also can make the company suffer huge losses.
This study aims to discuss about the event of Vanke being acquired, and the introductions of the macro and micro situation are beneficial for deep understanding of the background. And the analysis can give a directly perspectiveto both parties to learn the cause and future trend. With the data analysis about three models, this study gives a potential price range which will much more fitthe Vanke’s stock price than the one before Baoneng’s purchasing behavior.
Key Word: M&A, Stock Price, Real Estate, Vanke, Baoneng Group
Contents
1 Introduction 1
1.1 The Situation in China 1
1.2 Background and History 1
1.2.1 Introduction of Vanke 1
1.2.2 Introduction of Baoneng 2
1.2.3 The Important Timeline of the Battle 3
1.3 Significance of research and innovation 3
2 Literature review 3
2.1 Types of M&A by Actual Purpose 4
2.1.1 Strategic 4
2.1.2 Financial 4
2.2 Types of M&A by industry 5
2.2.1 Vertical 5
2.2.2 Horizontal 5
2.2.3 Conglomerate 5
2.3 Types of M&A by Attitude 6
2.3.1 Hostile takeover 6
2.3.2 Friendly takeover 6
3 Findings 7
3.1 About Vanke 7
3.1.1 The Stock Structure of Vanke and Industry Situation 7
3.1.2 The Cause of Ownership Dispersion 8
3.1.3 Differences between A-Share and H-Share 8
3.2 Discuss of Vanke’s Behavior during the Takeover 9
3.3 About Baoneng 9
3.3.1 Source of Baoneng’s Capital 9
3.3.2 Act during This Acquisition 10
3.4 The Purpose of Baoneng’s takeover behaiver 10
4 Methodology 11
4.1 Golden Growth Model 12
4.2 Terminal Value by EBITDA Multiple 14
4.3 Comparable EBITDA Multiple 14
4.4 Vanke’s Stock Price Does Not Fit Its Performance 15
5 Conclusions and Recommendations 15
5.1 Forecast of the Future Trend 15
5.1.1 Vanke Execute the “Poison Pill Plan” 15
5.1.2 Vanke Use the Dilatory Tactics 16
5.1.3 Vanke Use the Scorched Earth Policy 16
5.1.4 Baoneng win the ownership 16
5.2 Lessons and Recommendations 17
6 Reference 17
