历史已经出现变化，上升和下降的国际储备货币，以增加的作用，英镑在十九世纪以及美元在第二十世纪兴起。欧元的出现影响了全世界多在很多方面，这不是一个疑问，它的引入改善欧元区金融市场的运作，特别从交易成本和特定国家经济风险角度）。这是事实，欧元正在迅速逼近美元的流动性和广度的欧元金融市场。但在这个层面上，美国元仍然保持其在国际金融市场上的主导作用，也许是因为其更大的金融市场规模或在利用金融资源的惯性。
本文的目的是分析美元面临的不同方面的挑战。欧元将超过美国美元，并成为领导的货币的机会是什么。
INTRODUCTION 简介
The history has seen changes, rises and falls of an international reserve currency, emerging with an increased role of sterling in the 19th century and replaced by U.S. dollar in the 20th century (Eichengreen, 2006; Flandreau and Jobst, 2006). The emergence of euro has influenced a lot the whole world in many aspects and it is not a doubt that its introduction improved the functioning of euro financial markets, especially if we look from the perspective of transaction costs and country specific economic risks (Freix, 2004). It is the fact that euro is rapidly approaching U.S. dollar in terms of liquidity and breadth of euro financial markets. But at this level U.S. dollar is still maintaining its leading role on the international financial markets, maybe because of its greater financial market size or the inertia in the use of financial resources.
The objective of this paper is to analyze different aspects of challenges U.S. dollar faces today. What are the chances for euro to surpass U.S. dollar and to become the leading currency.
The first section of the paper gives a brief history about an international currency development, the second and the basic part gives some theoretical aspects and reviews the ideas of different economists about the challenges dollar face. All these discussion leads to the final part - conclusion.
HISTORY 历史
Before the few decades of World War I, international gold standard emerged. It was gold bullion and not a gold coin standard, which was the 19th century innovation. It meant coin and paper money convertible into gold bullions. Britain was the world's preeminent trade nation making up 30% of the world's export in 1860; 20% in 1890 and the 60% of the world's trade invoiced and settled in sterling between the years 1860 and 1914, as it was appropriate for a lot of foreign suppliers for entering the British market. The preeminence of sterling until 1914 can be considered as the evidence of existing only one international currency at any point in time. It was sterling, replaced by dollar and we should guess what will be the next.
In 1914, the Federal Reserve System was established, which increased the attractiveness of the New York market as a financial center. During the post-World War II period, while Europe suffered with the consequences of the war and the countries with potential alternative currencies to the dollars, maintained a great capital controls. This explains the dominance of dollar in reserves during a long period after World War II and in addition, the rapid growth of US economy played a significant role in establishing dollar as an international currency (Eichengreen, 2005).
In 1944 major market economists gathered in Bretton Woods to discuss the post-war monetary system. Keynes developed the idea about advantages of creating an international currency-Bancor, but there was no political will from countries to give up their national currencies. At the period, U.S. was the strongest economy and the Breton Woods meeting agreed on creating International Monetary Fund that would be anchored to the dollar - the only international currency convertible into gold by central banks (Swaminathan S. Anklesaria Aiyar, 2009).
The balance of payment surplus with U.S. was the only way for other countries to earn dollars. In 1958, United States started to face large balance of payment deficits that was a result of Europeans trade surpluses. As an overall result, in 1971 U.S. closed the official gold window thus finishing the Bretton Woods regime. (Menzie Chinn, Jeffrey Frankel, 2005) All these facts had an influence on the development of U.S. dollar as an international currency.
Nowadays Euro, the currency which physically occurred in 2002 and is used by 12
