本文的目的是确定的失业率和美国经济通货膨胀率之间的关系。它主要是研究在过去的失业率和通货膨胀率成反比。这种关系在短期内是稳定的，但从长远来看，它是不同的。在过去的这一关系中已经做了许多工作，并已在文献综述中列出。数据已收集了40年，从1970至2009年，并进行了分析，发现这两个变量之间有相关性。数据收集1970年，因为在这期间，通货膨胀和失业率水平在相同的速度在许多国家，包括美国。这被称为“滞胀”的通货膨胀和失业中遇到他们的水平在理论上反对菲利普斯曲线上升。菲尔普斯埃德蒙继续解释说，从长远来看，失业和通货膨胀之间没有关系，这使他获得了诺贝尔奖。后来证明，通货膨胀的增加可以暂时降低失业率，但从长远来看，通货膨胀对控制失业率没有作用。这种行为已经被长期的注意（1970-2009）已经证明通过相关性和回归模型，失业和相关性之间呈弱相关。
The purpose of this paper is to determine the relationship between the rate of unemployment and the rate of inflation in the US economy. It has been mainly examined in the past that the rate of unemployment is inversely proportional to the rate of inflation. The relation is stable in the short run but in the long run it is different. Many works have been done on this relation in the past and it has been listed in the literature review. Data has been collected for 40 years from 1970 to 2009 and analysis has been done to find if there is correlation between these two variables. The data has been collected from 1970 because during that period the inflation and unemployment levels were raising at the same rate in many countries including US. This was called as 'Stagflation' as inflation and unemployment were encountering rise in their levels which in theory opposed Phillips curve. Edmund Phelps went on to explain that in long run, there is no trade off between unemployment and inflation which got him a Nobel Prize. It was later proved that an increase in inflation can lower the unemployment in a short run temporarily but in the long run inflation has no role in controlling unemployment. This behaviour has been noted for the long run (1970-2009) and it has been proved through correlations and regression models that there is a weak correlation between unemployment and correlation.
The relationship between the unemployment and the rate of inflation was examined by a New Zealand born economist A.W. Phillips. The economist described the statistical relationship between wage inflation and unemployment in the UK. It was found that there is an inverse relation between unemployment and inflation when the graph was plotted with inflation on Y-axis and unemployment on X-axis. Same model has been applied to other countries by different economists and the result was same when inflation was low, the unemployment was high and vice-versa. This curve obtained by the scatter of points on the graph was popularly known as Phillips curve.
In his research, Phillip found that unemployment at 5.5%, the wage inflation is zero and when unemployment at 2.5%, the price inflation is zero as the increase in wage will compensate the productivity growth.
Paul A. Samuelson and Robert M. Solow through their research on "Phillips-Curve" found that a "negative correlation between the rate of inflation and the rate of unemployment". "The inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment was explained in terms of unemployment being a measure for the degree to which the capacity of the economy to produce output (factor employment) was utilised. When unemployment is high the excess supply of labour holds wages and prices down. When unemployment is low, excess demand will push up wages and prices more quickly. Expansionary fiscal or monetary policy would lead to an expansion of aggregate demand and more employment, but only at the price of increasing inflation" (Stratling, 2009).
Several economists assumed that the Phillips curve inferred that in the long run, at a constant rate of inflation there will be increase in the rate of unemployment. Studies in 1960 witnessed the relationship between unemployment and inflation is not what the Phillips curve recommended. Labour and companies were concerned of "real wages and real prices and not nominal ones". "Monetarists argue that once inflation expectations are taken into account, any inflation-unemployment trade-off is only a short-term possibility" (Stratling, 2009). The inflation will be predictable and the labour and organizations will respond to increase i
