This section of the prediction editor four principles
Forecast itself to use mathematics, statistics, and so on methodology, also want to change with the advanced method. We first not speak technology and method, the managers of the enterprise, may be the first concern is how to form a set of effective way of thinking? The following principles may inspiration:
Relevant principles
Based on the classification "thinking highly, pay attention to the things (category) the connections between, when know (or assumed) to the known something changes, to infer the other things change tendency. The most typical related a positive correlation and negative correlation, from ideas terms, not quite data relevant, is more of a "qualitative". (1) the positive related is between things "promote", for example, average income residents with "the household air conditioning possessed"; Have enterprise to realize "only children attention" infer toys, education related products and service market; The district government repeatedly asked one enterprise a question: "people's material and cultural life level with what what opportunities", it is actually currently unknown market faces a maximum opportunity! The region has the development of "home appliances," "the revolution of kitchen", "health products" should be fully understand and the results of the implementation of the refined. It also embodies enterprise of opportunity awareness. Be like again now of the census, experts suggest the material of the enterprise is "treasure", see how you know: there's a large furniture enterprise, one of the biggest started grasp opportunity is "Chinese third wave of these people birth family to establish a home until now the peak". (2) the negative related, it is to point to each other between things "restricted", a kind of things development led to another kind of things is limited. Especially "alternative". Such as resources policies, environmental protection policies will lead to "one-off resource" substitute appearance, like "and wood and steel" developed PVC tech; Somewhere ZhuLiChe compulsory scrap, where a "electric bicycle" enterprise keen to seize the opportunity also is same.Inertia principle
Any things development has some inertia, that is, in a certain time, certain conditions keep the same trend and state, this also is the most traditional forecasting methods theoretical basis. Such as "linear regression," "trend extrapolation" and so on.On principle
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