essay写作栏目提供最新essay写作格式、essay写作硕士论文范文。详情咨询QQ:1847080343(论文辅导)

市场调查与预测market research and prediction thailand

日期:2018年01月23日 编辑:ad200901081555315985 作者:无忧论文网 点击次数:1779
论文价格:免费 论文编号:lw201201200852168641 论文字数:15210 所属栏目:essay写作
论文地区:泰国 论文语种:English 论文用途:职称论文 Thesis for Title
market forecastThe prophet is not only for the future of human desire to, so have long forecast, including "500 years before 500 years know know the myth of, so forecast fell a disgraceful formerly called" secret ". Enterprise if can do some degree of clairvoyance, to the operation of the business benefits of course is self-evident. Of course being completely clairvoyance can't be, or every man is a millionaire, every enterprise must be flourishing. Although the enterprise to the future do not hold, but the human understanding, the progress of the thinking that people found the importance of "law", the ancients very early has distinguishing way, by the "view," "is law, with the history of experience and the progress of science and technology, human nature ability increases greatly. As the enterprise, discovery, knowledge and use of "rules" (including the market, customer, technology, the development of the enterprise) to the management of the enterprise must grasp the odds increase. The basic principle of prediction in the most simple understandable view: is the following such a model known-unknown, past, present and future trend, logic, the rule, experience, essence is the ability to analyze problems and means.
This section of the prediction editor four principles
Forecast itself to use mathematics, statistics, and so on methodology, also want to change with the advanced method. We first not speak technology and method, the managers of the enterprise, may be the first concern is how to form a set of effective way of thinking? The following principles may inspiration:

Relevant principles

Based on the classification "thinking highly, pay attention to the things (category) the connections between, when know (or assumed) to the known something changes, to infer the other things change tendency. The most typical related a positive correlation and negative correlation, from ideas terms, not quite data relevant, is more of a "qualitative". (1) the positive related is between things "promote", for example, average income residents with "the household air conditioning possessed"; Have enterprise to realize "only children attention" infer toys, education related products and service market; The district government repeatedly asked one enterprise a question: "people's material and cultural life level with what what opportunities", it is actually currently unknown market faces a maximum opportunity! The region has the development of "home appliances," "the revolution of kitchen", "health products" should be fully understand and the results of the implementation of the refined. It also embodies enterprise of opportunity awareness. Be like again now of the census, experts suggest the material of the enterprise is "treasure", see how you know: there's a large furniture enterprise, one of the biggest started grasp opportunity is "Chinese third wave of these people birth family to establish a home until now the peak". (2) the negative related, it is to point to each other between things "restricted", a kind of things development led to another kind of things is limited. Especially "alternative". Such as resources policies, environmental protection policies will lead to "one-off resource" substitute appearance, like "and wood and steel" developed PVC tech; Somewhere ZhuLiChe compulsory scrap, where a "electric bicycle" enterprise keen to seize the opportunity also is same.

Inertia principle

Any things development has some inertia, that is, in a certain time, certain conditions keep the same trend and state, this also is the most traditional forecasting methods theoretical basis. Such as "linear regression," "trend extrapolation" and so on.

On principle

The market forecast t