本文通过对黑龙江省近30~40年气象灾害进行总结,得出对农业影响较大的气象灾害主要有干旱、暴雨、冰雹、霜冻,其中干旱、暴雨对农业损失最多经济影响最大。
通过历史资料分析总结黑龙江省灾害性天气的时空分布特点、灾害评估标准、历史灾害情况等得出黑龙江省灾害性天气的主要规律为:暴雨灾害多集中在6、7、8月份,以局地暴雨为主,灾害多集中在中南部;干旱灾害季节性明显,主要发生在春季和夏季,以夏季干旱为主,西部地区旱灾较多;冰雹灾害地域性、时间性明显,夏季、午后发生次数最多,灾害多集中山区丘陵地带;霜冻灾害阶段性明显,50-70年代出现较多,北部地区和山区较易发生。
本文中所提出的气象灾害经济影响评估主要包括灾前评估和灾后评估两种。灾前评估通过灾害风险评估理论运用承灾体脆弱性综合评估”Hoovering”评估模式确定风险源的变异程度、承灾体的承受能力以及社会相应的防灾措施,以暴雨洪涝为例从研究区域情况和水深情况两方面建立预评估模型。
分析灾前评估两种评估方式与实际结果的差异,以县为单位的暴雨洪涝灾损情况汇总数据较实际情况偏大很多,分类资产评估法与实际灾损情况更加接近,在评估中根据研究县区的大小、经济实力及暴雨灾害程度等方面两种方法结合更加准确。
灾后气象灾情收集与影响评估通过灰色理论中的灰色关联度进行。通过历史资料对已形成的历史灾害进行人员伤亡情况和财产损失情况进行评估,评估方法为利用掌握数据资料对数据进行无量纲化,计算关联度系数、关联度,确定不同灾害的影响程度大小。
通过灰色关联度计算不同灾害在成灾面积方面的关联度得出四种灾害主次关系与实际灾情大小关系相吻合。对气象灾害灾情的等级划分比较中灰色关联度大小同样适用。探讨灰色关联度在灾后评估中的应用,为防灾减灾,科学合理的评估灾害程度提供科学依据。
关键词:气象灾害、暴雨、灾害评估、致灾临界条件、灰色关联度
Abstract
This article through to the HEILONGJIANG province nearly 30 ~ 40 years day summarizes meteorological disasters, the conclusion that bigger impact on agriculture meteorological disasters are drought, rainstorm, hail, frost, drought, heavy rain to the agricultural losses up to the greatest economic impact.
Severe weather in HEILONGJIANG province are summarized based on historical data analysis of the space-time distribution characteristics, disaster evaluation criteria, historical disaster situation indicates that the main rule for severe weather in HEILONGJIANG province, such as: heavy rain disasters more concentrated in June, July and August, give priority to with local rainstorm disasters more concentrated in the south; Seasonal drought disasters was obvious, mainly in spring and summer, give priority to with the summer drought, the western region more drought; Regional hail disasters, timeliness, summer, afternoon occur most frequently, disasters are mostly mountainous hilly terrain, Frost disasters stage obviously, 50-70 - s more, the northern region and mountains occur more easily.
This article proposed the economic impact of meteorological disasters assessment mainly includes two disaster assessment methods before and after a disaster assessment. Pre-disaster assessment through disaster risk assessment theory using the vulnerability of hazard-affected bodies "Hoovering" comprehensive assessment model to determine the degree of risk source of variation, the endurance of the hazard-affected bodies and social disaster prevention measures, critical meteorological conditions concluded and rainstorm floods, for example from two aspects: the situation about the study area and the depth of preliminary evaluation model is set up.
Analysis of disaster assessment before the differences of two assessment way and the actual results, in the county as the unit of storm flood damage situation summary data is more actual situation, classification of assets evaluation method and more close to the actual damage, according to the size of the counties in the assessment, and degree of economic strength and the rainstorm disaster two methods combined with more accurate.
Meteorological disasters colle