欧洲中期天气预报中心2.5度×2.5度的再分析资料运行中尺度气象数值模式MM5模拟我国太阳能分布

欧洲中期天气预报中心2.5度×2.5度的再分析资料运行中尺度气象数值模式MM5模拟我国太阳能分布 摘要 本文使用欧洲中期天气预报中心2.5度×2.5度的再分析资料运行中尺度气象数值模式MM5模拟我国太阳能分布情况，结合我国122个辐射观测站点采集的1957年至1998年气象辐射日值资料，对比不同物理参数化方案MM5模式的模拟效果，最终挑选出较优的物理参数化方案，并采用挑选的物理参数化方案运行MM5模式模拟我国1975年、1997年两个不同时期全年的太阳辐射变化情况，获得我国太阳能分布规律基本情况。我国不同地区太阳辐射年总量差别较大，在4000-8000兆焦耳/米2·年之间变化，总体上，呈现西高东低的分布特点，东部大部分地区太阳辐射在6000兆焦耳/米2以下，西部大部分地区辐射年总量在6000兆焦耳/米2以上。同时不同季节太阳辐射分布特点也存在一定差别。 本工作的优点是采用较高空间分辨率，网格大小为30km，可获得空间上较精细的太阳能分布情况，并为未来太阳能发电站选址提供有力的科学依据，获得的MM5模拟结果为1小时一次，时间分辨率高，为研究我国太阳能变化规律提供有力的再分析资料。同时模拟结果包含有完整的气象要素资料，对研究太阳辐射与各气象要素的相关关系，甚至其他气象要素之间相关关系有重要意义。 在获得我国太阳辐射分布规律的同时，重点分析了MM5模式对两个不同时期——1975年和1997年模拟效果差异，表明MM5模式对太阳辐射的模拟效果与各地的城市化进程、环境变化息息相关，同时还分析MM5模式模拟效果的季节差异特征以及气象因子对数值模拟太阳能的影响。 关键词：MM5模式，太阳能，中国 Abstract European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast ( ECMWF ) 2.5 degree by 2.5 degree Re-Analysis dataset is used to simulate the solar energy in China by running The Fifth-Generation NCAR / Penn State Mesoscale Model ( MM5 model system) . Combining the daily data of meteorological radiation, which is collected in 122 radiation observation station in China from the year of 1957 to 1998 , we choose a better physical-parameterized scheme to run MM5 Model system after comparing with the results of different physical-parameterized schemes. And then , we run MM5 Model to simulate the solar energy in China in the two whole year, the year of 1975 and 1997 , to find the difference in the two periods and the distribution of the solar energy in China. The amount of the solar energy in different regions in China is from 4000 million joule to 8000 million joule pre square meter a year. In the mass, the amount of the solar energy in the eastern part of China below 6000 million joule per square meter, and the western part over 6000 million joule per square meter. There are some differences in the distribution characteristics of the solar energy in different seasons. The distance of the grid we used is 30km, high horizontal resolution, and get the better order to the distribution of the solar energy to support a strong scientific principle to choose the place to build the solar energy power plant , the temporal resoluation we get from MM5 model’s output is one hour , high resolution. It is a precious Re-Analysis dataset to research the order to the variation of the solar energy in China. It also includes many meteorological arguments, which is supported to research the correlation between the solar energy and another meteorological argument , even the correlation between the different meteorological arguments. Finally, we analysis the different effect of MM5 Model simulate the solar energy in the two different periods, the year 1975 and 1997. Also the different effects of the numerical simulation in different seasons, and the importance of meteorological factor in numerical simulate the solar energy is discussed Key words: MM5 model, solar energy, China